The Fis4FF Deep Dive Series is where I go into depth about all 32 NFL teams from a fantasy football perspective. Here, I will discuss each team in depth in each division, in each conference. 

The 7th conference in this series is the AFC West!

NOTE: Final Projections will be released in September

Opening Thoughts

The AFC West went exactly how you might expect it would. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl and everyone else sucked. Yay. 

Denver was seeking to improve their disappointing 2022 season, by hoping Sean Payton could figure out an offense that would work well with QB Russell Wilson. And to be fair, it was definitely a step up, however, the improvement was not want the Broncos were expecting when they first signed him to a 5/$242MM contract. While I am a fan of Russ himself, there’s no debating that this is one of the worst contracts in NFL history. And to add insult to injury, instead of playing the contract through, like Cleveland is doing currently with Deshaun Watson, the Broncos chose to cut him and pay dead cap money for the next couple seasons.

The Chargers were looking to also turn their fates 180 degrees after a heartbreaking collapse in the 2022 wild card. Chargers signed OC Kellen Moore to ramp up their offense, and gave former HC Brandon Staley one last chance. Instead, the Chargers defense played as a below average unit and the Chargers experienced injury at almost every important position on offense. Herbert, Ekeler, Allen and Williams, all at one point, got injured and missed multiple games. The team underwent a complete overhaul and is looking to build a brand new culture under new HC Jim Harbaugh. 

The Raiders season was very rocky. They had solid star pieces, but under HC Josh McDaniels, both their offense and culture struggled. Their QB situation of Jimmy Garoppolo and 4th round rookie Aidan O’Connell did not help. Once McDaniels was fired in late October, interim HC Antonio Pierce turned their culture around. And while it did not lead to playoffs, there seemed to be some hope. In 2024, I am not sure what to expect from the Raiders. While they got better on offense, it wasn’t significant enough to make a splash in this conference. 

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl, despite this being the weakest they had been. Mahomes was just fine, but the Chiefs weapons led the league with 44 drops last season. However, because the AFC West was so bad, they were able to cruise to an AFC West title, and came together enough in the playoffs to win their second Super Bowl in a row. In 2024, the Chiefs will look to become the first team in NFL history to win three Super Bowls in a row.

Discussing Last Season

From a fantasy football perspective, there was nothing huge to write home about. While they finished 8-9 and 19th in points per game (21.0), nothing about this offense was exciting. Russ finished with a solid season, throwing for 3,070 yards and 26 TDs, adding 3 TDs on the ground, finishing as the QB14. RB Javonte Williams came back from an ACL injury and finished as the RB29 and WR Courtland Sutton wowed football fans with some super spectacular deep targets, finishing with 10 TDs. But due to Russ throwing for only 3,000 yards and being a below-average scoring offense, Sutton only finished as the WR35. 

The Chargers themselves had some hits and misses. Despite missing a few games due to injury, Keenan Allen was a rockstar all year. Allen finished as the WR8 in 13 games, with over 1,200 receiving yards and 7 TDs. He also had a number of monster games. As for the misses, Mike Williams started out hot but missed the rest of the season due to a torn ACL in week 3. Austin Ekeler missed weeks 2-5 due to injury, and honestly, did not look himself throughout the year. As a result, Ekeler finished with the worst YPC of his career (3.5) and finished as the RB26. Herbert was steadily consistent before missing the last four games of the season, finishing as the QB17.

The Raiders were similar to the Broncos, in that there was nothing huge to write home about. They finished 23rd in PPG scoring (19.5) and were not great as a fantasy team, except for Davante Adams. Adams was still an excellent receiver in 2023, finishing as the WR10, with over 1,100 yards and 8 TDs. The same could not be said about former teammate Josh Jacobs. Jacobs finished with career lows in rushing yards, YPC (3.5) and rushing TDs. While he finished as the RB28 in PPR scoring in 13 games, he was a bust compared to his draft capital. 

As for the Chiefs, I spoke a bit about their weird season. The Chiefs had the most drops in the league last season with 44, so the majority of their pass catchers were quite irrelevant. However, they by far had the most impactful group of fantasy starters in the AFC West. Mahomes was Mahomes as always, finishing with nearly 4,200 passing yards and 27 TDs. RB Isiah Pacheco was a steady force in the run and receiving game, finishing as the RB15. The two relevant pass catchers for this team were rookie Rashee Rice and of course, Travis Kelce. Rice finished with nearly 1,000 receiving yards and as the WR27. Kelce had a down season, as he got older in this league. However, his down year was the TE3 overall. 

Key Additions and Departures

Denver Additions 

Bo Nix, QB (12th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Zach Wilson, QB (traded in offseason) 

Audric Estime, RB (147th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Troy Franklin, WR (102nd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Devaughn Vele, WR (235th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Josh Reynolds, WR (signed in FA)

Denver Departures

Russell Wilson, QB (cut, signed to Pittsburgh in FA) 

Jerry Jeudy, WR (traded in offseason)

Chris Manhertz, TE (cut, signed to New York in FA)

Los Angeles Additions

Gus Edwards, RB (signed in FA)

JK Dobbins, RB (signed in FA)

Kimani Vidal, RB (181st pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

DJ Chark Jr., WR (signed in FA)

Ladd McConkey, WR (34th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Hayden Hurst, TE (signed in FA)

Will Dissly, TE (signed in FA)

Brenden Rice (225th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Los Angeles Departures 

Austin Ekeler, RB (signed to Washington in FA)

Joshua Kelley, RB (signed to New York in FA)

Keenan Allen, WR (traded to Chicago in offseason)

Mike Williams, WR (cut; signed to New York in FA)

Jaylen Guyton, WR (signed to Las Vegas in FA)

Alex Erickson, WR (FA)

Gerald Everett, TE (signed to Chicago in FA)

Las Vegas Additions

Gardner Minshew, QB (signed in FA)

Alexander Mattison, RB (signed in FA)

Dylan Laube, RB (208th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Jalen Guyton, WR (signed in FA)

Harrison Bryant, TE (signed in FA)

Brock Bowers, TE (13th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Las Vegas Departures

Josh Jacobs, RB (signed to Green Bay in FA)

Austin Hooper, TE (signed to New England in FA)

Kansas City Additions

Carson Wentz, QB (signed in FA)

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, WR (signed in FA)

Xavier Worthy, WR (28th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Irv Smith Jr., (signed in FA)

Jared Wiley, TE (131st pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Kansas City Departures 

Jerick McKinnon, RB (FA)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR (signed to Buffalo in FA)

Key Players / My Personal Tiered Rankings

Each relevant fantasy player on this team will be discussed in depth, separated by must draft players, solid players to have, deep sleepers and players to avoid. Some teams may have more fantasy starters than others, some may have less. I will also discuss if they are a current value or if they are someone who is going too high at their ADP.

Tier I: Must Draft Players 

Denver

N/A

Los Angeles

N/A

Las Vegas

Davante Adams (WR9, ADP 15)

2023 Stats: 175 Tgts., 103 Rec., 1,144 Rec. Yds., 8 TDs (WR10 Finish)

2024 Projections: 95 Rec., 1,195 Rec. Yds., 6.6 TDs 

• Davante Adams had a down year last season. And by down season, I mean he wasn’t named an All-Pro this season. Stat-wise, he finished with 103/1,144/8 and finished as the WR10 in PPR scoring. What is interesting however, is his 175 targets, which was 2nd in the league last season. According to Fantasy Points, Davante lost approximately 2.09 fantasy points a game due to uncatchable deep targets in 2023, which nicely transitions to why people are low on him this season: quarterback. 
• Last season, Adams dealt with Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O’Connell as his QBs and in 2024, he’ll have to deal with Gardner Minshew and O’Connell. That is marginally better, but not great. While the QB play is not great and the Raiders are slated to not be a good team in 2024, I did not really see that much drop off in play from Adams. He got open and still showed top 5 WR play. I think he finishes at or around his 2023 stats, which is why he’s worth his ADP. 

Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes (QB3, ADP 34)

2023 Stats: 401/597 (67.2%), 4,183 Pass Yds., 27 TDs, 14 INTs, 389 Rush Yds., 0 TDs (QB8 Finish)

2024 Projections: 4,283 Pass Yds., 32.6 TDs, 11.5 INTs, 379 Rush Yds., 1 TD

• Patrick Mahomes finished as the QB8 overall, finishing with 4,183 passing yards, and a 27:14 TD-INT ratio. These were solid stats, but not the best we’ve seen from Mahomes. This can be due to the Chiefs WRs being some of the worst in the league, forcing the Chiefs to move more to the run and more short-game. The Chiefs led the league with 44 dropped passes, some of which at the most inopportune times. 
• In 2024, with new talent around them that can spread the length of the field, I expect Mahomes and Co. to throw the ball deeper, leading to a better overall offense and thus, more fantasy points. There’s a reason Mahomes is currently projected to the most pass yards in the league in 2024. I also hope to see some more end zone scrambles that lead to TDs, as Mahomes had nearly 400 yards on the ground and 0 TDs. While Mahomes is not the greatest rusher of the football, I still have him as a top-5 fantasy QB.

Isiah Pacheco (RB12, ADP 39)

2023 Stats: 205 Att., 935 Rush Yds., 7 TDs, 44 Rec., 244 Rec. Yds., 2 TDs (RB15 Finish – 14 Games)

2024 Projections: 226 Att., 1,000 Rush Yds., 9.6 TDs, 45 Rec., 275 Rec. Yds., 2 TDs 

• Pacheco took the doubts about his safety in the backfield due to his 7th-round draft pedigree and put them absolutely to rest, showing efficiency in the run and pass game, finishing as the RB15 overall. In 2024, Pacheco will likely see more targets out of the backfield, as RB Jerick McKinnon is no longer on the team. Pacheco could also see a larger snap share than he did in 2023 as well.
• Pacheco is currently going in the 3rd round of drafts, and being that he can finish as a top 10 RB, that is a steal. Draft good players on good offenses.

Travis Kelce (TE2, ADP 34)

2023 Stats: 121 Tgts., 93 Rec., 984 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (TE3 Finish)

2024 Projections: 93 Rec., 999 Rec. Yds., 7.5 TDs 

• For the first time in a long-time, Kelce seemed human. This was always going to happen, as Kelce is 34 years old. While Kelce finished as the TE3 in PPR scoring, he was TERRIBLE at the end of the season. During the championship weekends (weeks 15-17), Travis Kelce was the TE22. While that was quite concerning, Kelce turned it all the way back up in the playoffs. 
• At the end of the Super Bowl, HC Andy Reid stated that they plan to play Kelce ~75% of snaps throughout the season to keep him fresh for another deep playoff run. So yes, while he will likely not be the Kelce of old, he still will likely finish, barring injury, as a top 5 TE. Because of namesake however, he will probably go much higher than that.

Rashee Rice (WR39, ADP 80)

2023 Stats: 102 Tgts., 79 Rec., 938 Rec. Yds., 7 TDs (WR27 Finish)

2024 Projections: 71.5 Rec., 849 Rec. Yds., 6.9 TDs 

• Rashee Rice was a second-round pick in 2023, and after a slow start from the Chiefs offense, Rice stepped up and became the number-one option on this team. And yes, I mean OPTION. From week 11 (post-bye), Rice outscored Kelce by a pretty significant margin. He was also a go-to guy for Mahomes for their Super Bowl run. This can be attributed to Rice playing 74% of the snaps post-bye. 
• In the 2024 offseason, Rice was caught driving 119 MPH on the free, which caused a six-car crash. On top of that, Rice was accused of assaulting a photographer outside of a Dallas nightclub. Many expected a long-term suspension, but being that the investigation is still ongoing by the NFL, it is likely that he will not be suspended until 2025. Add that, plus WR Hollywood Brown will be out for a bit, Rice has a chance to be a top 24 WR this season, and at his current ADP, that is worth taking.

Tier II: Solid Players to Have/Players at Great Value

Denver

Javonte Williams (RB26, ADP 85)

2023 Stats: 217 Att., 774 Rush Yds., 3 TDs, 47 Rec., 228 Rec. Yds., 2 TDs (RB29 Finish)

2024 Projections: 191 Att., 751 Rush Yds., 4.1 TDs, 44 Rec., 247 Rec. Yds., 1.6 TDs 

• Williams miraculously played all season in 2023, despite suffering a gruesome leg injury early in the 2022 season. He performed solidly, but he was a big fade for me in 2023, as I tend to want to avoid players coming back from major injury. However, for 2024, I want Williams on my fantasy teams.
• Williams will likely see a large share of work in both the run and pass game, and I think he can be a solid short option for rookie QB Bo Nix, as he likes to play quick and efficiently. Williams will have competition from Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime, but when it comes to this committee, Javonte is the lead dog. With a 7th round ADP, I think he is an awesome RB3 or RB2 for zero-RB builds. 

Courtland Sutton (WR47, ADP 102)

2023 Stats: 90 Tgts., 59 Rec., 772 Rec. Yds., 10 TDs (WR35 Finish)

2024 Projections: 63 Rec., 826 Rec. Yds., 7 TDs 

• Sutton was by far the best receiving option for this offense. His skill set worked quite well with Russell Wilson, who excels at throwing deep balls. There were multiple occasions where Russ threw down with the “Sutton down there somewhere” mentality, and Sutton miraculously came down with them. Sutton finished with nearly 800 yards and 10 TDs. While he will likely regress when it comes to touchdowns, I think he will finish first in yards with new QB Bo Nix. I think he is a solid player to have on your bench or as a FLEX play when needed. 

Los Angeles

N/A

Las Vegas

Zamir White (RB23, ADP 79)

2023 Stats: 104 Att., 451 Rush Yds., 1 TD, 15 Rec., 98 Rec. Yds., 0 TDs (RB56 Finish)

2024 Projections: 231 Att., 1,049 Rush Yds., 5 TDs, 34 Rec., 239 Rec. Yds., 0.4 TDs

• For the last two seasons, White has been behind Josh Jacobs as this team’s RB2. However, Zamir got his first chance to start in week 15 following a Jacobs injury. And Zamir did not disappoint. He was a true league winner, finishing as the RB9 overall from weeks 15-18. 
• In 2024, White has the lead share of this backfield, with his main competition being former Vikings RB Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube. HC Antonio Pierce has also spoken this offseason on wanting to establish the run. I think he will have a large share of first and second down runs, and will be a solid RB3 or RB2 for those building hero RB or zero RB builds. At his current ADP, I think he is a great value for your teams. Yes, there are more RBs with more upside than White, especially in the passing game, but if you just want a straight-up solid guy for your lineups, I think White is a solid selection.

Jakobi Meyers (WR54, ADP 123)

2023 Stats: 106 Tgts., 71 Rec., 807 Rec. Yds., 8 TDs, 24 Rush Yds., 2 TDs (WR24 Finish)

2024 Projections: 67 Rec., 750 Rec. Yds., 5.1 TDs 

• In his first year out of New England, Meyers enjoyed his best statistical season, finishing with 800 receiving yards and 8 reception TDs. He also scored 2 TDs in the running game. 
• For the 2024 season, I think Meyers’ role will mainly stay the same. I think Meyers is a security blanket in the short to intermediate game and is a savvy route runner. While he likely will see less target share due to the addition of Bowers in this offense, and he likely won’t see 10 total TDs, I still think he is going WAY too low. He’s going in late rounds of drafts and has a chance to finish as a top-36 WR. He is absolutely worth a pickup in your late rounds. 

Kansas City 

N/A

Tier III: Deep Sleepers/Players I’d Draft if Their ADP Fell

Denver

Bo Nix 

• Nix was the 12th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. In his time at Oregon, he was very accurate, on time and quick to get the football out. Recently, he was just named the 2024 starter for the Broncos. While I think Nix will be solid as a rookie, he is still a rookie. And I do not really trust the pieces around him enough to be more than just a low-end spot starter during bye weeks. 

Los Angeles

Justin Herbert, Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, Josh Palmer, Ladd McConkey 

• I personally love Justin Herbert, but I do not love his current situation. After a disastrous 2023, the Chargers blew up everything, including hiring a new head coach (Jim Harbaugh) and offensive coordinator (Greg Roman), both of which have a desire to prioritize the run. They also got rid of their two longtime WRs, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers look to be building things from scratch. In 2024, Herbert will also be recovering from a foot injury. I love Herbert’s talent and think he’s worth selecting as a deep QB2 for your bench, but for 2024, his upside for this season is capped.
• As for everyone else, I think Edwards and Dobbins, especially if the Chargers run as much as we expect, can both be a guy that becomes a consistent fantasy starter. I am not sure who wins out here, but my guess is Gus Edwards. I also like Palmer and McConkey, but I am truly unsure how much this team will pass. Harbaugh since his time in Baltimore, and even in college, liked his teams to run the ball very heavily. And I am afraid that may be the case for this Chargers offense.

Las Vegas

Brock Bowers 

• Bowers was selected 13th by the Raiders. And while he is a truly talented blue-chip prospect, I wonder how well he might do in this offense in year one. The Raiders drafted TE Michael Mayer last season and even if the Raiders play in a ton of 12-personnel sets, what will his target share look like in a likely low-scoring offense? I like Bowers quite a bit, but I don’t know if he’ll be all that impactful in 2024. His talent alone is worth a stash.

Kansas City 

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Xavier Worthy

• If Hollywood did not suffer a shoulder injury that has affected his timetable to play in week 1, he would be a tier-two guy for me. His deep speed is a perfect match for Mahomes’ play style. However, his injury seemed somewhat serious and I question if it is something that will linger the rest of the season. 
• As for Worthy, I like him as a prospect, but I think it will take him some time to get his feet under him in the NFL. I would not be surprised if he is only a part-time player for the majority of the season and is able to be more trusted towards the end. I don’t love his ADP, and because of that, I’d probably avoid him unless he fell to a value. I do love the talent and think he is worth a deep stash.

Tier IV: Avoid at all Costs/Likely to Not Be Relevant 

Denver

Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds, Adam Trautman, Greg Dulcich

• While McLaughlin and Estime will likely be in a RBBC with Javonte, I do think Javonte will see the majority of reps, to the point that both are just handcuffs in case of injury. As for the others, the majority of these guys are backups or guys who likely won’t make a big enough impact in a low-scoring offense.

Los Angeles

Quentin Johnston, DJ Chark Jr., Brenden Rice, Will Dissly, Hayden Hurst

• Because of the likelihood of the Chargers being a heavy running team, I do not see any of these guys making impacts on fantasy rosters.

Las Vegas

Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, Alexander Mattison, Dylan Laube, Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer 

• Like the Broncos and Chargers, the Raiders will likely be a low-scoring team. As a result, I will skip out on these guys unless injury hits. As for Minshew/O’Connell, I would not be surprised to see both play a meaningful number of snaps this season. I want neither.

Kansas City 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson, Kadarius Toney, Noah Gray

• If none of these guys could step up and make an impact in 2023, I would not bet my money they could do it in 2024. Avoid at all costs.

Projected Win Total

Broncos O/U 5.5 – UNDER

Chargers O/U 8.5 – UNDER 

Raiders O/U 6.5 – AVOID (I have them around 6-7 wins)

Chiefs O/U 11.5 – AVOID (I have them around 11-12 wins)

Summary

I think the AFC West is going to go exactly how we all expect it. The Chiefs are going to cruise to an AFC West title and attempt to go for a three-peat, and none of the teams here are going to have a fighting chance. I think the Broncos and Raiders are going to suck and I think the Raiders are going to suck less, but not be nearly good enough to make the playoffs. From a fantasy perspective, there are a lot of sleepers and young guys who can truly break out and I’m here for it. There also are solid guys to pick up and use as the foundation for your fantasy teams. Happy drafting!