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The Fantasy Football Deep Dive: AFC North

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  • Post last modified:August 10, 2024

The Fis4FF Deep Dive Series is where I go into depth about all 32 NFL teams from a fantasy football perspective. Here, I will discuss each team in depth in each division, in each conference. 

The 3rd conference in this series is the AFC North!

NOTE: Final Projections will be released in September

Opening Thoughts

The AFC North is one of the more interesting conferences in the NFL. None of the teams here were explicitly bottom of the barrel teams, making this a very competitive North division. However, when it comes to fantasy, it’s a bit of a different story. 

The Steelers were looking to get positive play from former QB Kenny Pickett, with a solid defense that could keep them competitive. However, they were one of the worst offenses in the league (17.9 PPG, 28th in NFL) and there were calls for the firing of former OC Matt Canada and even longtime head coach Mike Tomlin. 

The Browns were hoping to get the Texans edition of Deshaun Watson, and instead, found it in Joe Flacco, who was not even signed by a team when the Browns signed him. I commend the Browns by staying competitive and making the playoffs, despite having a QB carousel of four quarterbacks throughout the season. 

The Bengals had hopes of returning to Super Bowl form, but succumbed early to injuries, especially to their franchise QB Joe Burrow. Burrow struggled with calf and wrist injuries, never being fully healthy. And as a result, the Bengals never reached their upside. 

And the Ravens were one of the best teams in the league. They were led by MVP Lamar Jackson and a great defense, leading to them facing the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship, and unfortunately being one game short of reaching the Super Bowl. 

For the 2024-25 season, things look to be exactly the same for each team. Pittsburgh has some new faces for their offense, the Browns are still hoping to see if the Watson trade will work out in their favor, the Bengals are looking to return to contention with a healthy Burrow and the Ravens are intent on keeping themselves as contenders. 

Discussing Last Season

From a fantasy perspective, the Steelers were a bit of a mess. They ran at the 5th highest percentage and in general, were one of the worst downfield passing attacks behind Kenny Pickett. While George Pickens had a solid season, he finished as the WR29. RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren provided top-24 RB seasons (RB22 and RB23, respectively), but outside of that, were not a fun watch or a fun team to have. 

The Browns also had a messy season. With Deshaun Watson struggling with shoulder issues, the Browns sent out Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker and Joe Flacco as QB replacements. At some points, their offense looked good. But at times, they looked poor and slow. On top of that, running back Nick Chubb fell to season-ending injury in week 2. However, despite injuries at top level, there were some bright spots. Rookie Jerome Ford played solid in both the passing game and running game, finishing as the RB16. WR Amari Cooper had a consistently solid season, with a week 16 for the ages, finishing as the WR20. And David Njoku broke out in a big way towards the latter half of the season, finishing as the TE6. 

The Bengals also faced injury. QB Joe Burrow struggled with a calf injury and right when he was getting healthy, suffered a wrist injury on his throwing hand, ending his season. WR Tee Higgins also missed 5 games and was taken out of a couple more, hurting his overall production. Running back Joe Mixon finished as the RB6 overall, making his money in the run and pass game and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase finished as the WR11 despite the QB troubles. 

Meanwhile, the Ravens were easily one of the best teams in the league. QB Lamar Jackson won his second MVP and finished as the QB4 overall. RB Gus Edwards finished as the RB25, scoring 13 rushing touchdowns. And rookie WR Zay Flowers made an immediate impact for the passing game, finishing as the WR30. 

Key Additions and Departures

Pittsburgh Additions

Russell Wilson, QB (signed in FA after being cut by Denver)

Justin Fields, QB (trade from Chicago)

Van Jefferson, WR (signed in FA)

Roman Wilson, WR (84th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Pittsburgh Departures

Mason Rudolph, QB 

Kenny Pickett, QB (traded to Philadelphia)

Diontae Johnson, WR (traded to Carolina)

Cleveland Additions 

Jameis Winston, QB (signed in FA)

D’Onta Foreman, RB (signed in FA)

Nyheim Hines, RB (signed in FA)

Jamari Thrash, WR (157th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Cleveland Departures

Joe Flacco, QB (signed to Indianapolis in FA)

Kareem Hunt, RB (FA)

Harrison Bryant, TE (signed to Las Vegas in FA)

Cincinnati Additions

Zack Moss, RB (signed in FA)

Jermaine Burton, WR (80th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Mike Gesicki, TE (signed in FA)

Cincinnati Departures 

Joe Mixon, RB (trade to Houston) 

Tyler Boyd, WR (signed to Tennessee in FA)

Irv Smith Jr., TE (signed to Kansas City in FA)

Baltimore Additions 

Devin Leary, QB (218th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Derrick Henry, RB (signed in FA)

Rasheen Ali, RB (165th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Devontez Walker, WR (113th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Baltimore Departures

Gus Edwards, RB (signed to Los Angeles in FA)

Dalvin Cook, RB (FA)

JK Dobbins, RB (signed to Los Angeles in FA)

Odell Beckham Jr., WR (signed to Miami in FA) 

Key Players / My Personal Tiered Rankings

Each relevant fantasy player on this team will be discussed in depth, separated by must draft players, solid players to have, deep sleepers and players to avoid. Some teams may have more fantasy starters than others, some may have less. I will also discuss if they are a current value or if they are someone who is going too high at their ADP.

Tier I: Must Draft Players 

Pittsburgh

George Pickens (WR29, ADP 55)

2023 Stats: 106 Tgts., 63 Rec., 1,140 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (WR29 Finish)

2024 Projections: 61 Rec., 1,025 Rec. Yds., 5.7 TDs

  • Pickens finished as the WR29, having lackluster consistency due to terrible play calling and quarterbacking. However, Pickens did redeem his season, with week 16 and 17 boom weeks, making him a league winner. We all know the talent Pickens has. 
  • Going into this season, I am higher on Pickens than consensus. I believe Pickens’ skillset and playstyle mesh well with Russell Wilson’s ability to throw the ball deep. While the Pittsburgh offense won’t be top-tier, I believe Pickens will have more yards and touchdowns than his current projections. His only worry currently is if Brandon Aiyuk gets traded to the Steelers.

Cleveland 

Amari Cooper (WR26, ADP 46)

2023 Stats: 128 Tgts., 72 Rec., 1,250 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (WR20 Finish – 15 Games)

2024 Projections: 72 Rec., 1,118 Rec. Yds., 6.2 TDs 

  • Despite having to deal with a seemingly never-ending quarterback carousel, Cooper was amazingly consistent throughout the season. He was actually his most consistent with Deshaun Watson, providing a solid floor with some good boom games. When he had to deal with a mix of PJ Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Joe Flacco, his consistency notably dipped. It wasn’t until his week 16 game where he went for 11 catches, 265 yards and 2 TDs, for 51.5 PPR points! 
  • Coming into the league, Cooper is a steal for those who plan on hitting double-RB early and is a fantastic option as your WR3. I actually have Amari projected higher than consensus, despite my feelings on the QB situation.

Cincinnati 

Ja’Marr Chase (WR3, ADP 4)

2023 Stats: 145 Tgts., 100 Rec., 1,216 Rec. Yds., 7 TDs (WR11 Finish)

2024 Projections: 102 Rec., 1,326 Rec. Yds., 9.2 TDs 

  • It’s a well-known fact that Chase is one of the best receivers and young players in the league. While he had a stellar rookie year, he got injured in 2022 and in 2023, struggled a bit with consistency due to Burrow’s injuries. Nevertheless, he still finished as a top-12 WR, with over 1,200 receiving yards. 
  • I believe a 1,200 yard season is Chase’s floor. And if Burrow can maintain his health, he could be looking at a WR1 overall season. In the last two seasons, Chase has been 8th and 3rd in red zone targets, so he could easily have another double digit touchdown season. While I would move him down a bit in ADP due to the questions surrounding Burrow, Chase is still a locked and loaded first round pick.

Tee Higgins (WR30, ADP 56)

2023 Stats: 76 Tgts., 42 Rec., 656 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (WR51 Finish – 12 Games)

2024 Projections: 67 Rec., 1,009 Rec. Yds., 8.1 TDs 

  • Higgins had an unfortunate season, dealing with his own injuries last season, missing six games and also losing Joe Burrow during the season as well. While there are some legitimate injury concerns about Higgins, I am still in on him as a fantasy player. For one, this is likely his last season with the Bengals and will be a career year for him if he wants to get paid big time. Secondly, Higgins finished as the WR24 and WR18 in PPR scoring for 2021 and 2022, respectively, I fully expect a return to form in 2024.

Baltimore 

Lamar Jackson (QB4, ADP 38)

2023 Stats: 307/457 (67.2%), 3,678 Pass Yds., 24 TDs, 7 INTs, 821 Rush Yds., 5 TDs (QB4 Finish)

2024 Projections: 3,513 Pass Yds., 25.6 TDs, 11.6 INTs, 738 Rush Yds., 4.9 Rush TDs 

  • Lamar finished the 2023 season winning his 2nd NFL MVP. While this was not as spectacular as his first MVP, he still provided a solid floor, who peaked at the right time at the end of the season. 
  • One thing of note is that from weeks 8-12, he was the overall QB13 during that span. Regardless, with his rushing upside, he’ll always be a top-tier QB in fantasy. While there may be some inconsistencies, the boom weeks are as good as anybody in the league.

Derrick Henry (RB10, ADP 32)

2023 Stats: 280 Att., 1,167 Rush Yds., 12 TDs, 28 Rec., 214 Rec. Yds., 0 TDs (RB8 Finish)

2024 Projections: 258 Att., 1,183 Rush Yds., 11.8 TDs., 26 Rec., 226 Rec. Yds., 0.6 TDs 

  • Despite Henry having a “down” year in 2023, he still had over 1,100 yards and 12 TDs. I fully attribute that to the Titans having one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season. 
  • With Henry on the Titans, I am full steam ahead. You are taking Henry and putting him on a SIGNIFICANTLY better offensive line, a significantly better offense, especially one that ran the football at the highest percentage in 2023 (49.93%) and not expecting him to go crazy? Even if he sees less touches, he will absolutely eat at the goal line. In my opinion, he should be a second-round pick at the very worst. I would take him in the second-round if you go WR in the first. 

Mark Andrews (TE4, ADP 48)

2023 Stats: 61 Tgts., 45 Rec., 544 Rec. Yds., 6 TDs (TE15 Finish – 10 Games)

2024 Projections: 71 Rec., 861 Pass Yds., 9.1 TDs 

  • Before missing the remainder of the season with a leg injury, Andrews was the TE3 overall. He was the number one option in the passing game and was Lamar’s security blanket. 
  • Now with Andrews claiming to be fully healthy, I fully expect him to retain his role as the number one option for this team in the passing game. 

Tier II: Solid Players to Have/Players at Great Value

Pittsburgh 

Najee Harris (RB20, ADP 69)

2023 Stats: 255 Att., 1,035 Rush Yds., 8 TDs, 29 Rec., 170 Rec. Yds., 0 TDs (WR23 Finish)

2024 Projections: 229 Att., 927 Rush Yds., 6.9 TDs., 28 Rec., 176 Rec. Yds., 1.1 TDs 

Jaylen Warren (RB27, ADP 87)

2023 Stats: 149 Att., 784 Rush Yds., 4 TDs, 61 Rec., 370 Rec. Yds., 0 TDs (WR22 Finish)

2024 Projections: 130 Att., 656 Rush. Yds., 3.6 TDs, 53 Rec., 355 Rec. Yds., 1.2 TDs 

  • It makes sense to write about both of these RBs together instead of writing about them individually. Harris and Warren finished with nearly the same amount of overall fantasy points per game, but in vastly different ways. Najee was the ground and pound back used almost exclusively in the running game, while Warren was a change of pace back who caught 61 passes and provided an offensive spark that the Steelers desperately needed. 
  • For the 2024-25 season, I expect much of the same. While the jury is still out on Arthur Smith and what the splits will be between the two, I believe the roles will be exactly the same and both will provide RB2-ish production. I wouldn’t even be surprised if they finish next to each other again come end of season.

Cleveland 

Jerome Ford (RB39, ADP 124)

2023 Stats: 204 Att., 813 Rush Yds., 4 TDs, 44 Rec., 319 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (RB16 Finish)

2024 Projections: 127 Att., 511 Rush Yds., 3 TDs, 30 Rec., 216.5 Rec. Yds., 2.4 TDs 

  • Jerome Ford was a very underrated back last season, filling win wonderfully after Chubb’s injury in week 2. He was overall their main guy, but split work often with Kareem Hunt. And when it came to goal line, the Browns definitely preferred Hunt. 
  • Coming into year 2, many expect him to be relegated back to a backup, which is true. But how long until we see Chubb back? Chubb will likely start on the IR until he is able to work back and make contact, but even then, when will see a full workload. It may be a while until we see that, which makes Ford a very intriguing player. 
  • I expect Ford to retain the RB1 role in this offense who also makes money catching passes. As it stands right now, he is an absolute late round steal.

David Njoku (TE10, ADP 96)

2023 Stats: 123 Tgts., 81 Rec., 882 Rec. Yds., 6 TDs (TE6 Finish)

2024 Projections: 70 Rec., 820 Rec. Yds., 6.3 TDs 

  • As a talent, I love David Njoku. From weeks 7-17, he was the TE1 overall in PPR, having only one week under 10 FPPG within that span. However, much of his production was directly related to Joe Flacco. The Browns schemed up looks for Njoku in the short and intermediate game, and he made defenses pay. 
  • While I do not trust Deshaun Watson to return to his Houston days, reports out of camp are that the Browns are looking to get looks for Njoku, something that was not done with Watson as QB. If that remains to be true, Njoku can easily crush his ADP. He’s worth picking up, especially if the top 5 TEs are out of reach. 

Cincinnati 

Joe Burrow (QB9, ADP 59)

2023 Stats: 244/365 (66.8%), 2,309 Pass Yds., 15 TDs, 6 INTs (QB25 Finish – 10 Games)

2024 Projections: 4,207 Pass Yds., 29.8 TDs, 12.2 INTs, 162 Rush Yds., 2.3 Rush TDs 

  • Normally, Joe Burrow would be an absolute must-draft player for fantasy leagues. However, I am very concerned about his most recent wrist injury on his throwing hand that took him out for the remainder of the season in week 12. Burrow has spoken recently about it being a weird offseason for him and throughout training camp, he has not thrown for three days in a row.
  • Being that this is a unique injury for a QB, there’s reason to be hesitant. If Burrow remains healthy, he is at an insane value right now. He is worth a shot, and I hope that he remains healthy throughout the season, but there are valid question marks. 

Zack Moss (RB25, ADP 83)

2023 Stats: 183 Att., 794 Rush Yds., 5 TDs., 27 Rec., 192 Rec. Yds., 2 TDs (RB31 Finish – 14 Games)

2024 Projections: 178 Att., 775 Rush Yds., 6.4 TDs, 32.5 Rec., 223 Rec. Yds., 2 TDs 

  • I think Moss is a solid guy to have in your fantasy leagues. Last year he shocked many with multiple top-12 overall RB finishes while on the Colts. At multiple times last year, he looked even better than Jonathan Taylor. Now with Moss on the Bengals, I do believe him to be the main guy for this running room. While he’s not a great upside guy, I believe he’ll provide a solid floor as your RB3 or RB2 in zero-RB builds. 

Baltimore 

Zay Flowers (WR26, ADP 46)

2023 Stats: 108 Tgts., 77 Rec., 858 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (WR30 Finish)

2024 Projections: 79 Rec., 967 Rec. Yds., 6.3 TDs 

  • Flowers had a solid rookie year, finishing as the WR30 in PPR scoring. While he definitely will make strides, and will have a better year, I am lower on him than consensus. For one, he is a low-floor, number two receiver. He is going around guys like Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, George Pickens and Malik Nabers. I much prefer the upside of all of these guys, including Nabers who has yet to play a snap yet in the NFL.
  • Secondly, his production mainly came after Mark Andrews left with injury. Although we can attribute part of that growing throughout his rookie campaign, we can look at his numbers. From weeks 1-10 (pre-Andrews injury), Flowers was the WR30 overall and WR41 in PPG. From weeks 11-17 (post-Andrews injury), Flowers was the WR19 overall and in PPG. I fully expect a healthy Andrews to dip into Flowers’ production. So while he is a solid guy to have, he has a capped upside in a run-heavy offense. Of course this is baked into his ADP, but there are guys with much higher upsides around him that I am willing to take a chance on.

Tier III: Deep Sleepers/Players I’d Draft if Their ADP Fell

Pittsburgh

Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Pat Freiermuth 

  • While Russell Wilson is the QB1 in this offense, Justin Fields is making it a competition. It is unclear which one will ultimately win the job. If Russ wins, he’ll be low QB2. If Fields wins the job, he will be a QB1, especially with his massive rushing upside. However, I think this is Russ’ job to lose, which is why both are currently deep sleepers. 
  • As for Freiermuth, he could be the second option for a low-volume pass attack. 

Cleveland 

Nick Chubb 

  • Nick Chubb was revered as one of the best running backs in the league, before he underwent season-ending meniscus, ACL and MCL surgery. It was a gruesome injury that led many to question if Chubb would ever run in the NFL again. Normally, I would be completely off of a player the year they come back from an injury like this. However, it looks like he may play this season. While he has yet to practice, he was recently seen squatting over 500 pounds! While he will miss the beginning season, I would say it’s worth a late round add from a guy with super high upside. 

Cincinnati 

Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas

  • Chase Brown is likely to be the RB2/passing down back for the Bengals and Iosivas will likely be overtaking the role that was held by Tyler Boyd in previous seasons. Both will have meaningful snaps in this offense, but do not provide a ton of high upside unless injuries hit. Both are worth a shot in your late rounds.

Baltimore 

Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely 

  • While the Ravens gave Bateman an extension, he is going to be the third passing option on a team who ran the ball most out of any team in the league. He’s worth an upside play in your final rounds of drafts.
  • Likely was the TE3 overall from weeks 14-18, but that was with Mark Andrews hurt. With Andrews back and healthy, the opportunity will likely not be there. I still expect Likely to play meaningful snaps, even with Andrews still there, so he’s worth a late-round/free agent pickup.

Tier IV: Avoid at all Costs/Likely to Not Be Relevant 

Pittsburgh 

Van Jefferson, Roman Wilson

  • While Jefferson and Wilson are likely to be the second and third options for Pittsburgh, I do not know if I trust this offense enough to take any of these guys. I doubt either of these guys finish as top-36 players at the position.

Cleveland

Deshaun Watson, Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore

  • I have no faith in Deshaun Watson as a player and will not be drafting him anywhere. After these past two years to get the rust off, I’ve seen enough to say that I do not foresee him ever returning to his MVP-caliber Texans days. As a result, I have little to no faith in the rest of this receiving core. 
  • The Browns paid Jeudy a 3/$52.5MM contract extension, but even last year with better QB play, he was a droppable fantasy asset. Maybe a fresh start will get him back to fantasy relevance, but I’d pass.

Cincinnati 

Jermaine Burton, Trent Irwin, Mike Gesicki 

  • In an offense that has the potential to be top tier, but also shaky with Joe Burrow’s wrist injury, I have doubts about these guys being very fantasy relevant. Irwin is mainly a backup and Gesicki is a serviceable tight end that I do not have week-to-week confidence in. 
  • News out of camp says that rookie Jermaine Burton is not a lock to win the WR3 position, and it looks like year 2 receiver Andrei Iosivas is the favorite to take over that role. 

Baltimore

Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, Devontez Walker, Nelson Agholor 

  • All of these guys will be backups or role players in this offense. Maybe we can see Tez Walker carve out a sizable role in this offense, but even if he does, he’ll likely be behind Andrews, Flowers and Bateman in the pecking order.

Projected Win Total

Pittsburgh: O/U 8.5 – OVER 

Cleveland: O/U 8.5 – 8-9 wins seems right (would avoid as a bet)

Cincinnati: O/U 10.5 – UNDER* (depends on Burrow’s health throughout season)

Baltimore: O/U 10.5 – 10-11 wins seems right (would avoid as a bet)

Summary

The AFC North is looking like one of the most interesting places for fantasy. There are many players that I am higher on than consensus, and plenty of players I am lower on than consensus. It’ll be interesting to see how well these takes fare throughout the season. Whether I am right or wrong, it should nevertheless be a very interesting North division. If I had to choose a winner, my money is still on the Ravens. While they did lose some pieces, I still think the other teams, especially if Burrow is injured, are a step below them. 

Happy drafting!