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The Fantasy Football Deep Dive: NFC South

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  • Post last modified:August 20, 2024

The Fis4FF Deep Dive Series is where I go into depth about all 32 NFL teams from a fantasy football perspective. Here, I will discuss each team in depth in each division, in each conference. 

The 6th conference in this series is the NFC South!

NOTE: Final Projections will be released in September

Opening Thoughts

The NFC South could be described in a couple words: dumpster fire. Even though both the Buccaneers and Saints finished with winning seasons, it often was not pretty. 

Tampa Bay ended up winning the division in 2023, led surprisingly by the resurgence of Baker Mayfield. Mayfield spent time in LA and Carolina before finding himself on a small prove-it deal to resurrect his career in Tampa Bay. And not only did he lead this team to an NFC South title after the retiring of Tom Brady, but also got himself paid. In 2024, the Bucs will be looking to compete once again for an NFC South title. 

Carolina had one of the worst seasons in team history and league history. They were one of the most inept offenses in the league, and finished with the worst record in the league. To add insult to injury, they also did not have access to their first overall pick this season, after trading in 2023 to select Bryce Young. In 2024, the Panthers will be looking for a stable foundation and hopefully a year of hope behind QB Bryce Young. 

New Orleans also had a tumultuous season. While they won many close games in 2024, they were often not pretty to watch. Despite Derek Carr having a solid statistical season, he was not fun to watch and neither was this offense. In 2024, hopefully this team hits the rebuild button. They need it. 

And finally, Atlanta was one of the biggest disappointments in real life and in fantasy. Led by Desmond Ridder, the Falcons were often a low-powered offense that had struggles to move the football or score, as Ridder was inaccurate and had a huge turnover problem, especially near the goal line. They also had one of the easiest schedules last season, but blew it. In 2024, this team is serious about competing. They made a number of defensive changes, fired HC Arthur Smith and signed QB Kirk Cousins. They will be looking to make a deep playoff run this season.

Discussing Last Season

From a fantasy perspective, Tampa Bay was a solid team. Not only did Baker revive his career in a big way, but also led a steady offense (20.5 PPG, 20th) and finished as the QB10 overall. Where the Bucs really shined were at the offensive weapons. Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin finished with over 1,000 yards, with Mike Evans scoring 13 TDs in the process and finishing as the WR7 overall. Godwin finished as the WR28. RB Rachaad White enjoyed a breakout season, which saw him finish with 64 receptions and over 1,500 all-purpose yards. White finished as the RB4 in PPR scoring formats. 

The Carolina Panthers were awful in just about every way. There was only one fantasy relevant player: 33-year old Adam Thielen. Thielen was consistent for most of the season, finishing with over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. He finished as the WR17 overall. As for the rest of the team, Bryce Young led this team to being tied for the worst offense in the league (13.9 PPG), RB Miles Sanders was one of the biggest non-injury draft busts and the rest of the offense were non-starters. 

As for New Orleans, while their offense was often inept and painful to watch, there were some bright spots. Chris Olave showed that he was a reliable weapon, finishing with over 1,100 yards and 5 TDs. Running back Alvin Kamara came back from his suspension strong, finishing top-two in terms of receptions for running backs and finished as the RB11 in PPR. While pieces like Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed hit at times, they were just as inconsistent as this offense. 

Atlanta clearly had the talent and schedule to be a dominant team fantasy-wise, but behind Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder, there was not much we as fantasy managers could do. Bijan finished as the RB9, showing his draft pedigree as a blue-chip project, but could have had a much better season if Arthur Smith were not in the way. The same can be said for both Drake London and Kyle Pitts, who showed flashes of their talent, but the offense was way too inconsistent to give them the ball. London and Pitts finished as the WR36 and TE13, respectively. 

Key Additions and Departures

Tampa Bay Additions

Bucky Irving, RB (125th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Sterling Shepard, WR (signed in FA)

Jalen McMillan, WR (92nd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Devin Culp, TE (246th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Tampa Bay Departures 

Dave Canales, Staff (signed to Carolina as HC in offseason)

David Moore, WR (signed to Carolina in FA)

Deven Thompkins, WR (FA)

Russell Gage, WR (signed to Baltimore in FA)

Carolina Additions

Dave Canales, Staff (signed as HC over offseason)

Jonathan Brooks, RB (46th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Xavier Legette, WR (32nd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE (101st pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Diontae Johnson, WR (traded in FA) 

David Moore, WR (signed in FA)

Carolina Departures 

DJ Chark, WR (signed to Los Angeles in FA)

Laviska Shenault Jr., WR (signed to Seattle in FA)

Giovanni Ricci, TE (signed to Cleveland in FA)

Hayden Hurst, TE (signed to Los Angeles in FA)

New Orleans Additions 

Spencer Rattler, QB (150th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Kellen Mond, QB (signed in FA)

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR (signed in FA)

Bub Means, WR (170th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Samson Nacua, WR (signed in FA)

New Orleans Departures 

Jameis Winston, QB (signed to Browns in FA)

Marquez Callaway, WR (FA)

Michael Thomas, WR (FA)

Atlanta Additions 

Kirk Cousins, QB (signed in FA)

Michael Penix Jr., QB (8th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft) 

Casey Washington, WR (187th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Rondale Moore, WR (traded in offseason)

Darnell Mooney, WR (signed in FA)

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR/KR (signed in FA)

Atlanta Departures 

Desmond Ridder, QB (traded to Arizona)

Cordarelle Patterson, RB/WR (signed to Steelers in FA)

Mack Hollins, WR (signed to Bills in FA)

Jonnu Smith, WR (signed to Dolphins in FA)

Key Players / My Personal Tiered Rankings

Each relevant fantasy player on this team will be discussed in depth, separated by must draft players, solid players to have, deep sleepers and players to avoid. Some teams may have more fantasy starters than others, some may have less. I will also discuss if they are a current value or if they are someone who is going too high at their ADP.

Tier I: Must Draft Players 

Tampa Bay

Mike Evans (WR18, ADP 29)

2023 Stats: 136 Tgts., 79 Rec., 1,255 Rec. Yds., 13 TDs (WR7 Finish)

2024 Projections: 73.5 Rec., 1,126 Rec. Yds., 8.7 TDs 

  • While many questioned how Evans would fare with Tom Brady not throwing him the ball and the transition to Baker Mayfield, Evans proved all doubters and those who faded him fantasy (cough cough, me) completely wrong. Evans had one of his best statistical years, scoring 13 total touchdowns and finishing as the WR7. 
  • Can we see Evans doing the same thing this year? Of course touchdowns can change and vary, so it’s possible Evans does not sniff 13 TDs this year, but in terms of yardage and receptions, absolutely. WR18 is a great price and I would look to snag him in your round three of drafts.

Chris Godwin (WR33, ADP 63)

2023 Stats: 130 Tgts., 83 Rec., 1,024 Rec. Yds., 2 TDs (WR28 Finish)

2024 Projections: 80 Rec., 950 Rec. Yds., 5.2 TDs 

  • While Evans had one of his best seasons, Chris Godwin sneakily had more receptions, and over 1,000 yards in 2023. The problem? He only had two touchdowns last season. 
  • With the Bucs coaches saying Godwin will be moving more into the slot role in this offense, not only do I think he’ll crush his ADP, I also expect him to see more targets and score more TDs in this offense. I have a pretty good feeling Godwin will finish around a low-end RB2. If you see him in your 6th round, draft him!

Carolina

N/A

New Orleans

Chris Olave (WR11, ADP 17)

2023 Stats: 138 Tgts., 87 Rec., 1,123 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (WR16 Finish) 

2024 Projections: 87 Rec., 1,222 Rec. Yds., 6.5 TDs 

  • In his first two seasons, Olave has shown that he can command a heavy target share and become a fantasy WR1. The problem is that it has yet to happen, not to his fault of course. At times in 2023, he and QB Derek Carr were not on the same page. On top of that, he plays on a below-average offense and was 35th in the league in terms of red zone targets. 
  • While there is a new OC in New Orleans, I still think more or less Olave will have a similar season. We are hoping for more TD upside, but as it stands he is a good option for your fantasy teams.

Atlanta

Bijan Robinson (RB3, ADP 7)

2023 Stats: 214 Att., 976 Rush Yds., 4 TDs, 58 Rec., 487 Rec. Yds., 4 TDs (RB9 Finish)

2024 Projections: 221 Att., 1,034 Rush Yds., 6.6 TDs, 67 Rec., 588 Rec. Yds., 6.1 TDs 

  • Bijan finishing as the RB9 despite the weird season should tell you all you need to know about him. The talent is absolutely immense and it is clear. He is a strong, elusive, do-it-all running back who has the upside to finish as the RB1 overall in fantasy. 
  • The reason why fantasy analysts (including myself) are so high on Bijan, despite the “underwhelming” season, is because his biggest detractor, Arthur Smith, is GONE! Instead of utilizing his top-10 blue-chip prospect, including two-top 10 picks from previous drafts (London and Pitts), Smith chose to utilize Tyler Allegeier at the goal line and use Kyle Pitts as a decoy, with no other reasoning except he over thought it too much and “knew what he was doing.” Clearly he didn’t. 
  • Bijan has stated that the Falcons plan on using him in the “Christian McCaffrey” role, which lit up every fantasy manager’s eyes. Do NOT be surprised if he is the RB1 overall at the end of the season. 

Drake London (WR12, ADP 18)

2023 Stats: 110 Tgts., 69 Rec., 905 Rec. Yds., 2 TDs (WR37 Finish)

2024 Projections: 84 Rec., 1,123 Rec. Yds., 6.4 TDs 

  • London has seen a meteoric rise in fantasy drafts, with his ADP skyrocketing after the firing of Arthur Smith and the signing of Kirk Cousins. London is your prototypical X who uses his big frame to grab contested catches deep and in the red zone. He also excels in the “big slot” role, where he can get open off the line. 
  • At first glance, London’s ADP is way too high. But the more you think about the fact that there is new coaching and scheme in Atlanta and a new QB who is accurate and can get him the ball, his ADP makes sense. 
  • Drake London is not a value, but I have no problem taking him in the mid to late second round of your leagues. If the Falcons want to win the NFC South and make a deep playoff run, he will need to play an integral role in this offense.

Kyle Pitts (TE6, ADP 61)

2023 Stats: 90 Tgts., 53 Rec., 667 Rec. Yds., 3 TDs (TE13 Finish)

2024 Projections: 62 Rec., 855 Rec. Yds., 4.6 TDs 

  • Where do I even start with Kyle Pitts? He is one of the most frustrating players to have in fantasy. After his rookie year where he had 1,000 receiving yards, his last two seasons have been a disappointment to say the least. It’s tough to determine why that is, but we can deduce the reasons in an unbiased way. In year two, Pitts injured his PCL and MCL, causing him to miss multiple games in 2022. In 2023, HC Arthur Smith used him as a decoy instead of **checks notes** Jonnu Smith. On top of that, he was not fully healed from his previous injuries. 
  • In 2024, I think all fantasy managers can agree, this is Pitts’ last year before we all simultaneously give up. If he can’t break out with a new offensive system and Kirk Cousins, I do not know if he ever will. 
  • This is my stamp that Pitts, an athletic freak, will see plenty of targets and will make fantasy managers happy and leave them breathing a sigh of relief.

Tier II: Solid Players to Have/Players at Great Value

Tampa Bay

Rachaad White (RB13, ADP 42)

2023 Stats: 272 Att., 990 Rush Yds., 6 TDs, 64 Rec., 549 Rec. Yds., 3 TDs (RB4 Finish)

2024 Projections: 218 Att., 868 Rush Yds., 7.2 TDs, 54 Rec., 422 Rec. Yds., 2.4 TDs 

  • Rachaad White’s fantasy season can be summed up in one word: volume. White tied CMC for 2nd most rushing attempts in the league. However, he only averaged 3.6 YPC. However, not all of that is his fault, as he ran behind a poor O-Line between the tackles. 
  • Where he made his money was getting open in the receiving game. White caught 64 of 70 targets, and had the third most receiving yards for running backs. If he wants to remain as a top-12 fantasy back, he needs to see a similar amount of workload. But in 2024, there are questions around that. 
  • The truth is that I do not think he is a very efficient back and even with an improved O-Line, I do not think he’ll be that much more efficient. On top of that, the Bucs drafted Bucky Irving in the draft, which could take a bit away in terms of receiving upside. While I do have my questions, I do still have him as a solid player to have. I think he will finish around a mid-low RB2, but there are a number of guys I like more that are going after him in fantasy drafts.

Carolina

Diontae Johnson (WR38, ADP 78)

2023 Stats: 87 Tgts., 51 Rec., 717 Rec. Yds., 5 TDs (WR45 Finish – 13 Games)

2024 Projections: 67 Rec., 867 Rec. Yds., 7 TDs 

  • Diontae finds himself in a new home, after spending his previous years in Pittsburgh. Johnson was one of the best receivers in the league at getting open, but the problem was low efficiency, short routes and QBs not being able to get him the ball. 
  • In 2024, Diontae is expected to be the security blanket for QB Bryce Young. If we can see a solid jump for Young in 2024, we can see Johnson getting a ton of targets in the short to intermediate game. He has never been a guy to score a lot of touchdowns, but if he can, he will be a top-36 receiver for sure.

New Orleans

Alvin Kamara (RB17, ADP 58)

2023 Stats: 180 Att., 694 Rush Yds., 5 TDs, 75 Rec., 466 Rec. Yds., 1 TD (RB11 Finish – 13 Games)

2024 Projections: 186 Att., 739 Rush Yds., 5.5 TDs, 71 Rec., 507 Rec. Yds., 1.9 TDs 

  • Kamara started the first three games suspended due to an 2022 incident in Las Vegas. When he came back, he hit the ground running. However, it was not through the run game, but the pass game. Kamara averaged 3.9 Y/A, 2nd lowest of his career, behind one of the worst offensive lines. However, Kamara is also not the running back he once was. He was 78th in terms of yards after contact per attempt, and 41st in terms of broken tackles. Where Kamara was a beacon of light was receiving, where he had a total of 86 targets, tied for 2nd most in the league. At multiple times this season, Kamara had 14 targets. 
  • So take a running back who has become less and less efficient, loses goal line touches to Taysom Hill and will be behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and what do you get? A guy who you have to rely solely upon volume. His competition for touches is Taysom Hill, Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller. He will more than likely see a large workload and plenty of targets, especially if Derek Carr is throwing him the ball. I think Kamara is worth an RB2 pick, but there are some flags raised. If you can get him at a value, get him.

Atlanta

N/A

Tier III: Deep Sleepers/Players I’d Draft if Their ADP Fell

Tampa Bay

Baker Mayfield, Jalen McMillan

  • Baker had a career resurgence last season, throwing for 4,044 passing yards and 28 TDs. He also finished as the QB10. I think Baker will have a solid, steady season, but will most likely be a waiver wire pick up. 
  • As for McMillan, the rookie from Washington has had a great camp. He will likely play on the outside and be the WR3 on this team. As for now, he is a sleeper with solid upside.

Carolina

Bryce Young, Jonathan Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen

  • Brooks was the first running back drafted in the most recent NFL draft. He was an explosive rusher at Texas, however, tore his ACL during the season and is currently recovering from the injury. He will most likely start the season on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, and will probably not ramp up to a full workload until mid-season. 
  • Brooks has an opportunity to become the lead back in a backfield with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. He will have to ramp up and take over, but I am not sure if it will happen this year. He screams a huge play in 2025 currently.
  • As for the other Panthers here, I am hoping for a big Bryce Young bounceback. HC Dave Canales has often been touted as the QB guru behind the resurgence of Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. If he can do that, then we can see some boom games for guys like Legette and Thielen. If there’s one guy I want here and will be looking to target in the late round of drafts, it’s Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard stole the RB1 role from Sanders in 2023, and with Brooks starting on the PUP, he can be a solid RB3, with RB2 upside. As it stands, Hubbard is one of my favorite late-round targets.

New Orleans

Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill

  • Shaheed will likely be the number two, deep threat on this offense. He will have some bust games, but will also have games with 100+ yards and a deep TD. He’s likely not going to be consistent enough to be in tier-two, but he’s definitely worth a high upside late-round dart throw. 
  • I also added Hill in this tier, as he will get a ton of goal-line carries, will catch a few passes here and there and will possibly be seen as a TE in some of your home leagues, depending on the app. 

Atlanta

Kirk Cousins, Tyler Allegeier

  • There’s a lot riding on Cousins, as he is coming off a torn Achilles and is looking to help Atlanta move the needle as a contender. I love Cousins as a player and a guy, but as of right now, there’s some hesitancy to draft him as a consistent starter. For now, he is a guy who can be a waiver pickup or your second QB for bye weeks or plus matchups.
  • And whether we like it or not, Tyler Allegeier will be a part of this offense. While I think less usage than Arthur Smith had, he’s not going anywhere. Allegeier is a solid handcuff to take towards the end of your drafts.

Tier IV: Avoid at all Costs/Likely to Not Be Relevant 

Tampa Bay

Kyle Trask, Bucky Irving, Chase Edmonds, Trey Palmer, Sterling Shepard, Cade Otton

  • These guys are all backups and will likely see little work in this offense unless an injury hits. 

Carolina

Miles Sanders, Terrace Marshall Jr., Jonathan Mingo, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Tommy Tremble

  • While Jonathan Mingo has had a great camp, I think there are too many mouths to feed in an offense that likely won’t be near the top in terms of plays or points per game.
  • Everyone else are bench pieces that are not worth picking up even on waivers.

New Orleans

Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, A.T. Perry, Bub Means

  • While Derek Carr finished as the QB16 last season, if you watched, he was terrible, and often dumped the ball off to Kamara. With a new OC, the hope is that he can have a better year, but I do not expect there to be any fantasy upside really outside of a waiver wire week for your QB1’s bye week. 
  • I am not interested in anyone else in this offense.

Atlanta

Michael Penix Jr., KhaDarel Hodge, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III

  • Everyone here is a backup or someone who likely won’t see a consistent amount of touches in this offense. 

Projected Win Total

Buccaneers: O/U 7.5 – OVER 

Panthers: O/U 5.5 – AVOID (I expect 5-6 wins for this team) 

Saints: O/U 7.5 – UNDER UNDER UNDER 

Falcons: O/U 9.5 – OVER (My projection is 10-7)

Summary

To be quite honest, I do not think the NFC South will be competitive at all. I think the Panthers and Saints will be two of the worst teams in the league, and I have questions about the Buccaneers without Dave Canales. I think Atlanta will run away with the NFC South title. Regardless, there are some awesome fantasy players that you should draft on your teams and I am personally excited to see where the year takes us! Happy drafting!