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The Fantasy Football Deep Dive: AFC South

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  • Post last modified:August 18, 2024

The Fantasy Football Deep Dive: AFC South

The Fis4FF Deep Dive Series is where I go into depth about all 32 NFL teams from a fantasy football perspective. Here, I will discuss each team in depth in each division, in each conference. 

The 5th conference in this series is the AFC South!

NOTE: Final Projections will be released in September

Opening Thoughts

The AFC South in 2023 was filled with a ton of twists, turns and surprises, from start to finish. And I expect that exact same thing to happen in 2024. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars were looking to build off of their 2022 season, where Trevor Lawrence and Co. led one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history. After starting the season 8-3, clearly in first place in the South, things crashed hard. They were less efficient, weapons were not making plays and QB Trevor Lawrence got injured. They finished the season 1-5 and missed the last and final playoff spot in week 18. With things generally being the same in Jacksonville, the Jags are hoping for a brand new bounce back, with Trevor Lawrence at the helm, paying him a mega 5/$275MM contract extension. However, the AFC South is no longer the South of the old and every team here on out will be competitive. 

The Tennessee Titans had a bit of a weird season. In one sense, the majority of people knew they were a step below, but they were still trying to be a competitive team. After starting the season with Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis and seeing a lack of success, they moved on to rookie Will Levis, who immediately flashed in his first NFL start, throwing for four touchdown passes. The season finished underwhelmingly for the Titans, however Will Levis showed enough flashes for the team to find out if he is their franchise guy. On top of a phenomenal offseason of pickups, I am excited to see what the Titans do in 2024 and will be keeping a close eye on them. 

The Indianapolis Colts also had a weird season. After rookie QB Anthony Richardson flashed some of his brilliance in the run game people saw in Florida, he ended being hurt in the first quarter of the season. However, that did not stop this team from resiliently fighting. Behind OC Shane Steichen and QB Gardner Minshew, the Colts fought all the way to the end, being a couple plays away from making the playoffs and winning the AFC South. This season, the Colts bulked up and are relying on Richardson to stay healthy and show he can be a franchise quarterback. 

Finally, the Houston Texans surprised many NFL fans by being one of the NFL’s best offenses, led by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. Stroud had one of the best and most memorable rookie seasons in recent memory, and was responsible for the breakout season of Nico Collins and the emergence of rookie WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell. In the end, the Texans, who were projected to be one of the worst teams in the league in the preseason, ended up winning the AFC South and beating the Cleveland Browns in the wild card round. In 2024, the Texans are in on winning, trading for multiple high-caliber veterans to bolster their offense around Stroud. 

Discussing Last Season

From a fantasy perspective, the Jacksonville Jaguars were the definition of inconsistent. Many thought (including myself) that Trevor Lawrence was a sleeper pick for MVP, and throughout the season, it was clear that that wasn’t the case. Lawrence finished as the QB13 overall, with a slurry of underwhelming games, leading the Jags to 22.2 PPG, tied for 13th in the NFL. However, his underwhelming season was not necessarily all of his fault. 

When the Jags traded for Calvin Ridley in 2022, the expectation out of camp was for him to be the WR1 for this offense. However, Ridley was just as inconsistent, if not more than Lawrence. While Ridley did have over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, if you had him, you were NOT happy. However, his underwhelming season was not all his fault either. WR Christian Kirk was the WR28 before missing the rest of the season in week 13. 

The two bright spots for this offense were RB Travis Etienne and TE Evan Engram. Etienne finished as the RB3, who had a number of big games and Engram was the TE2, who provided a good floor as Lawrence’s security blanket. 

The Titans did not really have anybody outside of Derrick Henry and DHop who were fantasy relevant. The offense struggled behind a poor offensive line, and the QB carousel was a point of contention during the season. The Titans were 27th in the league in PPG (17.9). Levis started in week 8 and finished as the QB33. DeAndre Hopkins was the only receiver worth mentioning here, finishing as the WR22 overall. And Derrick Henry finished his final season as a Tennessee Titan as the RB8 overall. 

The Colts themselves had a weird season. Behind the Jonathan Taylor injury and holdout and the Anthony Richardson injury, the vibes were a bit weird. However, behind Gardner Minshew, the offense still held solid. They finished 10th in the NFL in PPG (23.3). RB Zack Moss held his own until Taylor came back, finishing with multiple top-12 RB overall weeks, and the RB31 overall. Despite only playing in 10 games, JT flashed a bit of his historic 2021 season, finishing as the RB33 overall, but the RB12 in PPG. WR Michael Pittman also had a career year, finishing with highs in receptions and receiving yards, and finishing as the WR13 overall. 

The Texans, from top to bottom, were very fantasy viable. QB CJ Stroud won rookie of the year and finished as the QB11 overall, leading the team as the 13th best offense in terms of PPG (22.2). Stroud directly led to the fantasy production of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Collins had a career breakout, finishing as the WR12 overall. And before Dell was lost to season-ending injury, he was actually this team’s WR1. From weeks 1-12, Dell was the WR14 and Collins was the WR17. Another surprise from this team was the sudden drop off from year 2 running back Dameon Pierce. After a promising rookie season, it looked like Pierce’s running style did not match the Texans offense. During the season, veteran RB Devin Singletary took over and played admirably when given the starting reps.

Key Additions and Departures

Jacksonville Additions

Mac Jones, QB (traded in offseason) 

Keilan Robinson, RB (167th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Brian Thomas Jr., WR (23rd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Gabe Davis, WR (signed in FA) 

Jacksonville Departures

Calvin Ridley, WR (signed to Tennessee in FA)

Zay Jones, WR signed to Arizona in FA) 

Tennessee Additions

Mason Rudolph, QB (signed in FA)

Tony Pollard, RB (signed in FA)

Calvin Ridley, WR (signed in FA)

Tyler Boyd, WR (signed in FA) 

Jha’Quan Jackson, WR (182nd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Tennessee Departures 

Ryan Tannehill, QB (FA) 

Derrick Henry, RB (signed to Baltimore in FA) 

Indianapolis Additions

Joe Flacco, QB (signed in FA)

Adonai Mitchell, WR (52nd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Anthony Gould, WR (142nd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Indianapolis Departures 

Gardner Minshew, QB (signed to Las Vegas in FA)

Zack Moss, RB (signed to Cincinnati in FA)

Houston Additions

Joe Mixon, RB (traded from Cincinnati) 

Cam Akers, RB (signed in FA)

Jawhar Jordan, RB (205th pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Stefon Diggs, WR (traded from Buffalo) 

Ben Skowronek, WR/FB (traded from Los Angeles)

Cade Stover, TE (123rd pick in ‘24 NFL Draft)

Houston Departures 

N/A

Key Players / My Personal Tiered Rankings

Each relevant fantasy player on this team will be discussed in depth, separated by must draft players, solid players to have, deep sleepers and players to avoid. Some teams may have more fantasy starters than others, some may have less. I will also discuss if they are a current value or if they are someone who is going too high at their ADP.

Tier I: Must Draft Players 

Jacksonville

Trevor Lawrence (QB17, ADP 103)

2023 Stats: 370/564 (65.6%), 4,016 Pass Yds., 21 TDs, 14 INTs (QB13 Finish)

2024 Projections: 3,874 Pass Yds., 24.2 TDs, 12.7 INTs, 295 Rush Yds., 4.1 Rush TDs

  • As I alluded to early, Lawrence’s disappointing season was not all of his fault. Part of that reason were his weapons disappointing him. Across the board, Lawrence had multiple missed opportunities in the face of dropped touchdowns, not getting two feet in, etc. On X, Ian Hartitz posted a video of Trevor Lawrence near missed touchdowns. And now, the discourse on Lawrence has gotten WAYYYYY out of line. In total, the Jags had 26 drops, often at crucial times. 
  • The truth is that while Lawrence did have an underwhelming year, I think he is due for a major bounceback. He is not a bad quarterback. And his ADP of QB17 is an absolute joke. Not only will he finish higher, but I am projecting him to be a top-12 QB this season. 

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB9, ADP 27)

2023 Stats: 267 Att., 1,008 Rush Yds., 11 TDs, 58 Rec., 476 Rec. Yds., 1 TD (RB3 Finish)

2024 Projections: 236 Att., 931 Rush Yds., 9 TDs, 48 Rec., 385 Rec. Yds., 1.1 TDs 

  • Etienne had a breakout season in 2023, finishing with nearly 1,500 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns. Etienne also saw 73% of snaps in the backfield, which is a true three-down workload. And part of that reason was how bad rookie RB Tank Bigsby was. 
  • In 2023, I expect much of the same in regards to work. Even if Bigsby cuts into more snap share, Etienne will still have 60-65% of snaps in both the run and pass game. Maybe he sees a downtick in rushing yards and overall TDs, but that does not stop me from drafting him as a meaningful top-12 RB. 

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR49, ADP 107)

2024 Projections: 62 Rec., 849 Rec. Yds., 4.9 TDs 

  • Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU lit up the SEC by scoring 15 touchdowns. He also posted a 4.33 40 yard dash at 205 pounds. The Jags were impressed with his talent and took him with the 23rd pick in the most recent draft. 
  • Usually, rookies would be in tier-2, but I am all in on BTJ. For one, I think he will crush his WR49 ADP, and be worth a start as your WR3 or FLEX. I also believe his deep ball skill set works wonders alongside Trevor Lawrence, who loves to throw the ball deep. At the end of the season, I would not be surprised if Thomas finishes as this team’s highest WR. Plus, news out of camp have been very positive. 

Evan Engram (TE7, ADP 72)

2023 Stats: 143 Tgts., 114 Rec., 963 Rec. Yds., 4 TDs (TE2 Finish)

2024 Projections: 89 Rec., 802 Rec. Yds., 4 TDs 

  • Engram finished as the TE2 overall, posting career highs in receptions (114) and receiving yards (963). His 8.4 yards per reception were the lowest of his career, signifying that he saw most of his work within the short and intermediate game. 
  • For 2024, I really don’t see anything changing at all. In fact, I believe Engram is Kirk’s biggest competition for these short security targets for Trevor Lawrence. I love Engram and he is a solid value at the TE7. Maybe he won’t provide the same consistency as the TEs above him, but if you miss out on those guys, he is a must draft target. 

Tennessee

Calvin Ridley (WR35, ADP 65)

2023 Stats: 136 Tgts., 76 Rec., 1,016 Rec. Yds., 8 TDs (WR18 Finish)

2024 Projections: 68 Rec., 956 Rec. Yds., 7.9 TDs 

  • As I alluded to above, similarly to my Trevor Lawrence write-up, Calvin Ridley’s disappointing season was not all due to him. While he did drop seven balls (seventh-most in the NFL) and missed out on at least 3 more TDs, he was also used poorly in Doug Pederson’s offense. Ridley’s skillset is best used as a motion guy, off the ball, where you can let him work on getting open from all facets of the field. The Jags used him as a prototypical deep threat, where it seemed that he was used as a decoy for other guys. And yes, while he did have 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, it was UGLY. 
  • So going to Tennessee in free agency, why am I excited again. Because HC Brian Callahan has stated that they plan to use Ridley in the “Ja’Marr Chase role”, that is, to put him in motion more often and give him more favorable looks off the line that match with his skillset. DeAndre Hopkins will be the typical “X” receiver, while Ridley moves around. And I LOVE that. I wish they did that more in Jacksonville, but better late than never. I am trying to get him anywhere I can.

Indianapolis 

Anthony Richardson (QB6, ADP 47)

2023 Stats: 50/84 (59.5%), 577 Pass Yds., 5 TDs, 1 INT, 136 Rush Yds., 4 TDs (QB40 Finish – 4 Games)

2024 Projections: 3,495 Pass Yds., 19.8 TDs, 10.9 INTs, 587 Rush Yds., 7.4 Rush TDs 

  • Anthony Richardson, in his 4 games played last season, flashed the potential to be the QB1 overall, with his big arm and massive rushing upside. However, he only played four games before missing the rest of the season with shoulder surgery. 
  • While the QB1 upside is absolutely evident, I have some hesitancy. Number one, of course, is injury. He plays tough and his playstyle can absolutely lead to another long-term injury. And number two, is his passing game. Accuracy was one of his biggest issues coming out of college, and being that he only played four games last season, he missed out on season-long progression and being able to work on and develop his game throughout the season. Part of the reason you become the QB1 overall is by having at least a solid passing game in the NFL.
  • With that being said, the upside, IMO, outweighs the question marks. If you have a chance to draft the guy who can finish as the QB1 and have 10+ touchdowns, you do it. AND, he’s going in the 4th, sometimes even 5th round of drafts. Yes, there is a risk there, but he’s a risk worth taking.

Jonathan Taylor (RB5, ADP 13)

2023 Stats: 169 Att., 741 Rush Yds, 7 TDs, 19 Rec., 153 Rec. Yds., 1 TD (RB33 Finish – 10 Games)

2024 Projections: 283.5 Att., 1,283 Rush Yds., 10.8 TDs, 38 Rec., 296 Rec. Yds., 1.7 TDs 

  • Jonathan Taylor has had an interesting fall from grace. In 2021, he accumulated 1,800 rush yards and 18 TDs, and was rightfully deemed the 1.01 in 2022 drafts. However, an injury plagued season took away his 2022, and part of his 2023. Alongside a holdout, Taylor was a risky pick up and fell as late as the 7th and 8th round. However, when Taylor came back in 2023, he was 12th in fantasy PPG. 
  • So now the question is, can we expect that in 2024? The answer to that is yes. While his goal line upside is definitely in question because of Richardson, I still think he’s easily a top 12 RB. In his 2021 campaign, he had 40 receptions, which I don’t think is out of the picture either. I think he is at worst a low-end RB1, with top 5 upside.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR15, ADP 24)

2023 Stats: 156 Tgts., 109 Rec., 1,152 Rec. Yds., 4 TDs (WR13 Finish)

2024 Projections: 97 Rec., 1,081 Rec. Yds., 4.4 TDs 

  • Pittman had a career year in 2023, finishing as the WR13, with a 109/1,152/4 statline. And with Anthony Richardson in at QB, I think this could be much of the same. I think he will be this team’s WR1, playing as this team’s big slot and getting a ton of balls in the intermediate part of the game. While Richardson likes to throw the ball deep, I still think Richardson and the Colts will find ways to get Pittman the ball. 
  • He doesn’t score a ton of touchdowns, but that is already built into his season-long projections, which is at 4.4 currently. Anything over that is a plus. As it stands, he is a well-worth WR2 to have on your fantasy teams.

Houston 

CJ Stroud (QB5, ADP 44)

2023 Stats: 319/499 (63.9%), 4,108 Pass Yds., 23 TDs, 5 INTs (QB11 Finish – 15 Games)

2024 Projections: 4,135.5 Pass Yds., 28.4 TDs, 9.9 INTs, 172 Rush Yds., 2.8 Rush TDs

  • Stroud took the football world by storm, winning rookie of the year and having decent MVP odds during the season. Stroud finished as the QB11, throwing for 4,100 yards and a 23:5 TD-INT ratio. 
  • And honestly, I think he absolutely crushes these numbers and makes a big play as a potential MVP this season. The Texans traded for Stefon Diggs this season to give him one of the best working receiving cores this season. And while there has been a ton of debate amongst the fantasy community throughout the offseason about which receiver to take in this offense, I think the real solution is to draft CJ Stroud. Even if Stroud throws for 4,100 yards again this season, he only had 23 TDs last season. Is it not realistic to see Stroud to throw for over 30 TDs this season? If he does, an MVP award is definitely a possibility. 

Nico Collins (WR13, ADP 21)

2023 Stats: 109 Tgts., 80 Rec., 1,297 Rec. Yds., 8 TDs (WR12 Finish – 15 Games)

2024 Projections: 76 Rec., 1,144 Rec. Yds., 8.3 TDs 

Tank Dell (WR29, ADP 55)

2023 Stats: 75 Tgts., 47 Rec., 709 Rec. Yds., 7 TDs (WR39 Finish – 11 Games)

2024 Projections: 66.5 Rec., 921 Rec. Yds., 7.9 TDs 

  • Collins had a breakout season and finished as the WR12 in 15 games last season. And Dell finished as the WR39 in 12 games. However, one thing to look back at is where Collins and Dell were ranked before Dell suffered a season-ending injury. From weeks 1-11, Dell was the WR14, while Collins was the WR17. So both were fantasy viable, and I think will be the same for both players this season. 
  • I love Nico Collins. And so do the Texans, as they paid him a worthy extension in the offseason. I think Collins is this team’s number 1 WR, and was phenomenal. He was elite, having an 82.5% success rate in press coverage (96th percentile), according to Reception Perception, and while Stefon Diggs will take some target share away from him, I think his role in this offense is safe. Where I think Diggs will take more target share from is Tank Dell. 
  • However, as you can see, I think Tank Dell is a must-draft player. He’s had a bit of a weird offseason, recovering from his injury and getting shot. But QB CJ Stroud absolutely loves Tank Dell. I can honestly see Dell and Diggs having similar seasons, as they can both play a mix of outside and inside, but Dell is almost two full rounds lower in value than Diggs, and both have similar season-long stats. 

Joe Mixon (RB15, ADP 53)

2023 Stats: 257 Att., 1,034 Rush Yds., 9 TDs, 52 Rec., 376 Rec. Yds., 3 TDs (RB6 Finish)

2024 Projections: 245 Att., 940 Rush Yds., 8.6 TDs, 43 Rec., 329.5 Rec. Yds., 2.9 TDs 

  • From a macro perspective, if you looked at the Bengals as a whole, you would see a disappointing season marred by injury. When you start to look closely, you’ll see that Joe Mixon actually had a great fantasy season. Mixon finished as the RB6, finishing with 1,034 yards on the ground and 9 rushing TDs, to go with 52/376/3 through the air. 
  • In 2024, the Bengals traded Mixon to Houston to be this team’s RB1. And I think Mixon will transition seamlessly. For one, he is going from a team who ran the ball 36.55% of the time (31st) to a team that runs the ball 40.89% of the time (21st). He also will be running behind a better offensive line. He’s also a significantly better pass catcher than the likes of Devin Singletary or Dameon Pierce, so even if he loses targets, I think he is a worthy pick as a top-15 RB. 
  • Mixon is currently going in the 5th round of drafts, so picking him as as your RB2 is a great strategy. If you need more motivation to draft Mixon, here are his last overall finishes in fantasy (PPR scoring): RB6 (‘23), RB10 (‘22), RB4 (‘21), RB49 (‘20, 6 games played), RB13 (‘19), RB10 (‘18). 

Tier II: Solid Players to Have/Players at Great Value

Jacksonville

Christian Kirk (WR31, ADP 55)

2023 Stats: 85 Tgts., 57 Rec., 787 Rec. Yds., 3 TDs (WR47 Finish – 12 Games)

2024 Projections: 77 Rec., 942 Rec. Yds., 5.1 TDs 

  • Kirk finished with a 57/787/3 statline, before exiting in week 13. He was likely on pace for a 1,000 yard season before injury. At times last season, Kirk was Lawrence’s go-to guy. 
  • For 2024, I like Christian Kirk quite a bit. I think he has a massive opportunity to be Lawrence’s security blanket, securing targets in the short and intermediate game. If you want a high floor, solid guy on your team, Kirk is your guy.

Tennessee

DeAndre Hopkins (WR37, ADP 67)

2023 Stats: 137 Tgts., 75 Rec., 1,057 Rec. Yds., 7 TDs 

2024 Projections: 69 Rec., 944 Rec. Yds., 6.9 TDs 

  • Despite the QB carousel last season, Hopkins still finished as a top 24 WR, finishing with a 75/1,057/7 statline. While not the All-Pro he once was, he’s still a quality, consistent WR that can win on the outside. One thing that surprised me is that Hopkins also had 137 targets last year, despite only 75 receptions. According to FantasyPoints, Hopkins had the 8th-worst catchable target rate in the NFL. If we can get some more high quality targets from Levis, we can see a much better 2024. 
  • Hopkins is currently injured with a knee injury, expected to miss 4-6 weeks. His status for week 1 is in question. I still believe he will be a solid top-36 WR for fantasy and still has his high boom weeks. (see: 2023 week 8)

Tyjae Spears (RB32, ADP 100)

2023 Stats: 100 Att., 453 Rush Yds., 2 TDs, 52 Rec., 385 Rec. Yds., 1 TD (RB34 Finish)

2024 Projections: 130 Att., 560.5 Rush Yds., 3 TDs, 46 Rec., 363 Rec. Yds., 1.4 TDs 

Tony Pollard (RB29, ADP 90)

2023 Stats: 252 Att., 1,004 Rush Yds., 4 TDs, 55 Rec., 311 Rec. Yds. (RB14 Finish)

2024 Projections: 196 Att., 809 Rush Yds., 5.7 TDs, 34 Rec., 220 Rec. Yds, 0.5 TDs 

  • I am not sure which RB between Spears and Pollard will receive more carries. All I know is that HC Callahan views both of them as “starters”. And I tend to believe that. Pollard, when in the context of where he was drafted last season, was disappointing. And Spears flashed behind Derrick Henry, but has an injury past. 
  • As it stands, I would be perfectly okay drafting either of these and seeing whatever happens. I personally prefer Spears because he is going lower, but don’t be surprised if both finish with identical statlines. If I had to bet, I can see Spears having a similar role to Najee Harris, where he is getting the bulk of the runs, and Spears is getting the majority of the passing work, showing off of his explosiveness, similar to Jaylen Warren. Both are explosive backs who can make some money in the run and pass game. 

Indianapolis 

N/A

Houston 

Stefon Diggs (WR20, ADP 33)

2023 Stats: 160 Tgts., 107 Rec., 1,183 Rec. Yds., 8 TDs (WR9 Finish)

2024 Projections: 88 Rec., 1,083 Rec. Yds., 6.4 TDs 

  • Diggs is coming off a very questionable end of 2023. As I stated in my AFC East Deep Dive, Diggs was the WR3 from weeks 1-10, and the WR42 from weeks 11-18. He still got a ton of targets, but it seemed that he completely fell off a cliff. Part of that reason can definitely be attributed to the Bills’ hiring of new OC Joe Brady. This was a similar story to DJ Moore when Brady was the OC in Carolina. However, when you look at the advanced metrics, Diggs seemed to be worse on deep targets, having a worse success rate, compared to years past. 
  • And while there are genuine questions, I still like Stefon Diggs as a WR. I do think he’ll be the WR2/3 in this offense, and will be competing for targets with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Age could definitely be a factor as well to his potential decline, but there have been plenty of questions, which leads me to a bit of hesitancy. Still, he is a worthy player to have on your fantasy teams.

Tier III: Deep Sleepers/Players I’d Draft if Their ADP Fell

Jacksonville

Gabe Davis

  • After Gabe Davis burned me in 2022, I noped out of their real quick. Even in 2023, with Josh Allen as the QB, he posted multiple games of 0. So why is he a deep sleeper? Even with his mass inconsistencies, he is a good deep threat and Lawrence likes to throw it deep. I project him to be the 4th option in this passing game, who will likely be the deep threat on this team, but similar to his time in Buffalo, can absolutely win you a week. Even though I don’t like Davis, he’s worth a bench slot.

Tennessee

Will Levis, Tyler Boyd

  • I like Will Levis quite a bit and I am glad that Tennessee is giving him a chance to be the guy. Part of the reason why I think Tennessee is one of the most underrated teams in the league is because they bolstered their offensive line, gave him added weapons and will with new head coach Brian Callhan, they are projected to pass more than in past seasons. I think Will Levis can surprise a lot of people and provide a solid option with big boom weeks. In college at Kentucky, he was a strong-arm QB who was also a tough runner as well. I like him as a low QB2, and would not be surprised if he crushes his ADP. There will be inconsistent weeks, but there will definitely be some great ones in there. 
  • As for Boyd, he is the WR3 in an offense that projects to be middle of the road at the very best. If he finished as the WR49 last season in Cincy, I struggle to see him being a top-36 WR in Tennessee.

Indianapolis 

Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell 

  • Normally I would have downs as a reliable tier-two guy, however he went down in camp with a high ankle sprain and will be out for some time. 
  • As for AD Mitchell, he is looking like the 3rd or 4th receiving option on this team. I think he’ll provide some upside and another quality option for Richardson, but not something that you can depend on consistently week-to-week.

Houston 

Dalton Schultz

  • Schultz actually finished as the TE10 overall, posting a 59/637/5 statline. While Schultz is a reliable option who saw 88 targets last season, that target share will most likely see a downtick with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. As it stands, Schultz is a guy who is worth a pick up in deeper leagues or on a bye week.

Tier IV: Avoid at all Costs/Likely to Not Be Relevant 

Jacksonville

Mac Jones, Parker Washington, Tank Bigsby

  • These are the backups for Jacksonville and I don’t expect any of these guys to make splashes.

Tennessee

Mason Rudolph, Malik Willis, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ihkine, Kyle Philips, Chig Okonkwo

  • The majority of guys here are backup options that will likely see a few targets here and there, but nothing that you should really depend on.

Indianapolis 

Joe Flacco, Trey Sermon, Alec Pierce, Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox

  • The Colts team has a solid group of offensive weapons around them, so unless there is an injury, I don’t foresee any of these guys making a fantasy-relevant splash. 

Houston 

Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce, Robert Woods, Noah Brown, John Metchie III

  • As I alluded to earlier, it was an unfortunate surprise to see the team move away from Dameon Pierce after a promising rookie year. As the team traded for Joe Mixon, it’s very likely he will see a reserve role in this offense. The same can be said for everyone else on this list. 

Projected Win Total

Jaguars: O/U 8.5 – AVOID (I project 8-9 wins for this team)

Titans: O/U 6.5 – OVER 

Colts: O/U 8.5 – AVOID (I project 8-9 wins for this team)

Texans: O/U 9.5 – OVER

Summary

I think the AFC South will be one of the most competitive divisions in the league this year. I think you can make a case for Jacksonville, Indy or Houston to outright win the AFC South, as it will be a grind throughout the season. My current bet is the Texans to win the AFC South by a game, finishing 10-7. I also think the Titans are one of the most underrated teams and will be much better than they were last season. Regardless of what happens, I am super excited to see how this division plays out in fantasy and real time. Happy drafting!