After the Chiefs week 1 victory against the Baltimore Ravens (27-20), many fantasy managers came away with one thought:

WHAT THE HECK IS UP WITH MARK ANDREWS?

Mark Andrews finished with 2 receptions for a mere 14 yards and it often looked like Lamar wasn’t looking at him at all. To add insult to injury, TE Isaiah Likely looked absolutely amazing, finishing with a 9/111/1 stat line, which could have been even better if not for the viral final play of the game where Likely’s toe was an inch out of bounds. Likely also had 12 of Lamar’s 41 attempts..

There was a ton of speculation as to why Mark Andrews had a quiet night. For one, Andrews was recently in a August 14th car accident and only recently returned to practice on the 30th. Initial reports out of Baltimore was that he was left uninjured, but it’s possible that he was more injured than what was originally stated.

The second theory is that Likely will have a bigger part of this offense than initially expected. Coach speak is a thing that can be hit or miss, where sometimes we should take what a coach says at face value, or we should hold expectations, as sometimes coaches can be a bit exaggerative. However in a June 13th interview, head coach John Harbaugh stated that Isaiah Likely will be a “big part” of what they do.

Rightfully so, fantasy managers were very nervous. Mark Andrews had a late-fourth to early-fifth round ADP. If he busts, managers will now have to turn to week-to-week at the waiver wire for tight ends, which, if you’ve done before, know it sucks.

However, I think fantasy managers should not be worried about Mark Andrews, just yet. And here is why.

No. 1: Andrews’ Route Participation

While it is true that Isaiah Likely may have a larger role in this offense, it is also true that managers should not be worried as well. It is very possible the Ravens run more 12-personnel sets. And on top of that, according to Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life, Andrews had 72% route participation vs. Likely’s 69%. While Likely led the Ravens with a 30% target share, we can expect that number to go down, especially if Andrews’ is a bit hurt and ramping up from his recent car accident. However, the next reason is perhaps the best reason to not be worried about Andrews yet.

No. 2: Kansas City’s Defensive Coverage Against Mark Andrews

Thanks to the incredible tool of NFL Pro, we can look at the play-by-play film to see how Andrews was covered against the Chiefs defense.

NOTE: I am unsure of if I am able to post screenshots or film replays from NFL Pro here, but if I can in the future, I will definitely post it for future content!

Early in the game, it was clear that Andrews was being covered both by a linebacker and safety. Here are the stats that I gathered on a drive-by-drive basis:

• First Series: 4 route participations: 3 double-covered, 1 single-covered (Single coverage play was Flowers’ 19-yard reception)
• Second Series: 2 route participations: 2 single-covered
• Third Series: Lamar Jackson fumble, not on field
• Fourth Series: This one was a bit tougher to debate, as these were often short routes that went nowhere, but I gathered 4 route participations: where he was doubled 2 twice and had single coverage once.
• Fifth Series: 4 route participations: 3 single-covered, 1 double-covered
• Sixth Series: 7 route participations: 5 double-covered, 2 single-covered
• Seventh Series: 2 route participations: 2 single-covered (1 reception for 11 yards, other route was a short route on a 3rd and 11)
• Eighth Series: 5 route participations: 2 double-covered, 3 single-covered (Andrews was doubled on Likely’s 49 yard touchdown)
• Ninth Series: 4 route participations: 1 double-covered, 3 single-covered (Andrews got his second reception on this drive.)
• Tenth Series: 7 route participations: 4 double-covered, 3 single-covered

Conclusion

In total from what I gathered, Mark Andrews ran 39 routes Thursday night and in those 39 routes, Mark Andrews was doubled 20 times. Of the 19 times he was single-covered, many of those routes were short routes before the sticks or routes where the ball was already out in the short game. The opportunity for targets was minimal. You can check out these posts from Andy Holloway of the Fantasy Footballers and Nathan Jahnke of PFF that back up some of the film that I watched. Andrews was doubled and bracketed virtually all game throughout almost every drive.

The truth is that there is still a world where Likely is a bigger part of the offense AND Andrews is still a TE1. Based on the way Andrews was doubled versus the Chiefs, I doubt that that will be something that persists throughout the season. Regardless of how big of a role Likely plays, the Ravens know how special Andrews is and won’t resort to him to being a decoy like Arthur Smith treated Kyle Pitts. We all like to overreact (including myself), but my conclusion is to not worry about Andrews just yet. I think he will be fine and return back to being a true TE1.

Thanks for reading!